← GG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at GG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Water Allies | 15.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.5% | +9.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Honorable Vanguard, Crux Sight, Scry the Skies. Losers more often ran: Devastating Blow, Bulwark Sword.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Infusion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Firetongue | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |